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A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.

Arguments range over identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses something to gain from the opposing positions."

Appeal for More Extensive Debate

Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."