🔗 Share this article A Caution for Keir Starmer from His Own History: Without Boldness on Brexit and the EU, His Party Challengers Shall Be. Back in 2018, a mere a short phrase to ignite a Labour conference and to show the party was falling out of love with its then leader. Although not exactly soaring oratory, the words were greeted with wild cheering as delegates rose in an impromptu ovation. When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches having such an effect. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". Context, however, is key. During that deeply polarized period of 2018, departing from his agreed text in this way was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in working-class seats over the Europhile sentiments within Labour. In just one speech, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against the leadership he later succeeded. The Evolution in Position and Settled Debates Since then, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership in 2020 was declaring the EU question was resolved by the 2019 national vote. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge promises that ruled out rejoining the European Union or its core structures. Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in key seats, despite polling evidence suggests a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion. Pressure Building on the EU Yet, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled Labour leader. And, if EU relations may not be the boiling pot of British politics, a lid that has been kept tightly sealed since Brexit is beginning to rattle once more. Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified their language about the devastation caused by Brexit has inflicted on the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick to criticize the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and remains his only real achievement. Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, reportedly has resulted in a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the minor adjustments thus far implemented by ministers. The PM's much-touted relationship reset negotiated with the EU in 2024 provides gains measured in fractions of a percent. Cabinet Divergence & Bolder Ideas Rachel Reeves is one of those attempting to bypass long-standing Home Office resistance to a broader scheme designed to boost growth program for young people by which youths can travel between the UK and the EU for work or study. David Lammy has pondered publicly about the “self-evident” benefits of being in an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, recently voted for an opposition proposal on customs union membership. While Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees EU policy, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, insists the red lines remain unchanged, there are ways these could be bypassed. A proposal would be to announce the start of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the next manifesto, with implementation only if Labour won a fresh mandate. The Prime Minister's Fundamental Doubts Yet, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water again cautioning that rejoining a European customs area could undermine the commercial agreements with the US, which he regards as key accomplishments of his premiership. Reportedly that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, stemming from three further factors. Firstly, he believes a customs pact is now significantly more difficult as ministers are actively diverging from EU regulations across a range of policy areas, like environmental standards. Second, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain for entry into a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure of negotiations has led British officials that former EU partners are less interested in offering favorable terms to the UK and are more focused on demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake. Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is seen by key advisors in Number 10 as grounds for Britain to keep its distance from the EU. An Alarming Document and Geopolitical Calculations This strange and concerning document claims Europe faces “civilizational erasure” because of Muslim migration. It contains only one reference of the UK, found on a proposal that the US government may interfere in our politics to foster the growth of nationalist movements. However, instead of concluding that this makes America an undependable ally, the government is worried that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by endangering precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances. Succession Chatter & The Echo of 2018 All of which returns us to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not a pitch for the leadership but simply an effort to preserve the “option” of remain in a future vote. In fact, back then, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement of the kind he currently seems to reject. Observers within the Prime Minister's office have noticed that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate in any leadership election, is part of a clutch of cabinet ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition on Europe. Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a future race for the top job, insist she refuses to comment on her position on a customs union as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”. The Obvious Risk & A Prudent Memory The risk is clear. Should the PM reject significant moves towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found. It would be prudent of him to remember the effect that a short phrase had on his career in 2018. Potential pathways for a major proposal on Europe which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open personally, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.